A classic AFC East rivalry returns in Week 11 for the first time this season, as the Patriots are set to host the Jets on .
New York, rather surprisingly, has won two games in a row for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2024 season. Despite selling at the trade deadline, the Jets (2–7) are still competing and will look to put a damper on New England’s scalding start to the season.
Meanwhile, the Patriots—led by MVP candidate Drake Maye, who is enjoying a terrific sophomore season in the NFL—sit atop the division at 8–2. They’re winners of seven in a row, having gone without a loss since Sept. 21.
Over much of the last two decades, New England has had a stranglehold over its rivalry against the Jets, though New York has won two of the last three games. Prior to their win in January of ‘24, the Patriots had won 15 straight games against the Jets, and hadn’t been beaten in regulation since 2011.
New England’s new nor’easter uniforms aside, this matchup looks like it could be more of the same, with the teams trending in opposite directions this year. With that, let’s make some bold predictions for the game:
Drake Maye will throw for 300-plus yards for the first time in his career
Drake Maye has been as consistent as they come in 2025. He’s not had a single game below 200 passing yards, but, interestingly enough, he’s also not thrown for more than 287 yards, either. In fact, Maye has never in his career thrown for more than 300 yards in a single game. I’m expecting that will change on Thursday night.
This will be the Jets’ biggest test since the team traded Sauce Gardner to the Colts. They matched up against Dillon Gabriel and the lackluster Browns’ passing attack last week, but now they’ll have to try to slow down an MVP candidate in Maye. I’m anticipating they’ll struggle to slow him down, and Maye will turn in a 300-plus yard game with at least two passing touchdowns.
TreVeyon Henderson will find the end zone again
Fans have been clamoring for Henderson to get his opportunity out of the backfield in New England, and he’s not disappointed since seeing the bulk of the team’s touches over the last few weeks.
Coming off the best game of his career, Henderson will be dialed in and ready to run rampant against the Jets, who lost their best run defender at the trade deadline in Quinnen Williams. After scoring two touchdowns and averaging 10.5 yards per carry last week, I expect Henderson will find paydirt once again in Week 11, while also tacking on another 100-plus-yard performance.
Breece Hall will rush for 100-plus yards, TD
While this may not seem terribly bold on the surface—given that Breece Hall is considered among the top running backs in the NFL—let’s first understand how dominant the Patriots have been against the run this season.
Through Week 10, New England boasts by far the league’s top run defense, allowing just 79.2 yards per game on the ground—for context, the next closest is the Texans at 90.3. Additionally, up until Sean Tucker’s 53-yard performance for the Buccaneers last Sunday, no opposing running back had run for 50 or more yards on the Patriots all season.
On the flipside, however, Hall enters Thursday night on a tear. Over the Jets’ last two games (both wins), the 24-year-old has rushed for 133 and 83 yards, averaged 5.6 yards per carry, and also found the end zone three total times.
Needless to say, we’ve got a heavyweight battle on Thursday night, and I’m going with the hot hand to win. Look for Hall to eclipse 100 yards on the ground and score a rushing touchdown—just the fourth allowed by New England this season.
New England will win its eighth straight in a shootout
With a 10.5-point spread, the game being played in Foxborough, and the Jets—despite winning two straight—looking like one of the worst teams in football this season, this one have “Patriots blowout” written all over it.
Not so fast, however.
While both defenses have been relatively stingy throughout the year, New England has shown its hand a bit of late, while New York has quietly shown an ability to light up the scoreboard, scoring 27-plus points in four games so far this season.
That’s why I’m predicting Thursday night’s contest from Gillette to turn into an unexpected shootout—with an expected result. Patriots win 38–31 and move to 9–2 on the 2025 season.
