SUNDAYNFC championshipWashington Commanders (14–5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16–3)
When/TV: 3 p.m. ET, FOX
Spread: Eagles -6.5 (over/under: 47.5)
Matchup to watch: Eagles DT Jalen Carter vs. Commanders’ offensive line. Carter disrupted various aspects of the Rams’ offense last week, recording three QB hits, a forced fumble and two sacks, including the game-saving sack that derailed Matthew Stafford’s final drive. Carter is going to need another dominant performance against Daniels & Co. Washington excels at misdirecting defenses with run-pass options, but Carter will face a shorthanded offensive line that lost guard Sam Cosmi to a torn ACL last week. The Commanders racked up 481 total yards against the Lions, including 182 rushing yards. —
Key stat: It’s Barkley’s time to shine once more. The Commanders have struggled to stop the run this season, ranking 29th by allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Of course, this is a problem against Philadelphia and its 2,000-yard rusher, as the Eagles are fifth in the NFL offensively at 4.9 YPC. —
Best bet: Commanders +6.5. In most cases, I would be laying the points with the Eagles but at this point, I simply can’t look past Daniels and the Commanders’ offense. Daniels has been the best rookie quarterback in the history of the sport and may now be the best quarterback in the NFC. His ability to use his legs to his advantage while also remaining calm in the pocket is something I rarely see from a player at his position. The Commanders also seem to have the Chiefs-esque factor of having things go their way in big moments and never shooting themselves in the foot, something the Eagles have done continuously this season including last week against the Rams. The Commanders may not win this game. Their defensive issues may prove too much to pull off another upset. With that being said, I can’t envision this being a blowout in favor of Philadelphia. I’ll take the points. —
SI’s pick:In a chess match between Vic Fangio and Kliff Kingsbury, I don’t quite know if it’s easy to pick a winner. These two teams are, in some ways, bizarro versions of one another. Washington has an offensive line that played out of its mind last week and the Eagles have one of the better overall units in the NFL. I am leaning slightly toward Philadelphia if only because they still have a more consistent and controllable running game. The Commanders will need game-of-the-year performances from Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, which is possible, but not as easy to bet on as Barkley continuing to play at his current level. —
