For the second time this season, there is an odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has taken the mantle as the clear-cut MVP favorite after another dominant showing in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football.
Only Stafford (-210) and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (+180) have shorter than 16/1 odds to win the award, a sign that oddsmakers view this as a two-player race through the first 12 weeks of the 2025 season.
With all 32 teams in action in Week 13 for Thanksgiving week, the MVP case for either Stafford or Maye could be solidified even further. Meanwhile, Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor and Patrick Mahomes all saw their odds fall in the MVP market compared to last week.
Here’s a full breakdown of the odds after Sunday’s action in Week 12, as well as a breakdown of some of the top candidates at this point in the season.
Latest NFL MVP Odds for 2025 Season
Matthew Stafford: -210Drake Maye: +180Jonathan Taylor: +1600Josh Allen: +2200Patrick Mahomes: +2500Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +4000Sam Darnold: +4500Jalen Hurts: +4500Daniel Jones: +5000Jordan Love: +5500Caleb Williams: +7500Justin Herbert: +7500Jared Goff: +7500Bo Nix: +9000Baker Mayfield: +9000Dak Prescott: +10000Lamar Jackson: +10000Matthew Stafford Now Odds-On Favorite to Win MVP
A three-touchdown performance in a blowout win on Sunday Night Football was all Stafford needed to skyrocket to the odds-on favorite in this market.
The Rams are now in control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC – a huge boost to Stafford’s case – and the veteran leads the NFL in touchdown passes with 30 in just 11 games. Oh, and he’s only been picked off twice!
He has an implied probability of 67.74 percent to win the MVP and is the first odds-on favorite for the award since Josh Allen took that mantle early in the 2025 season.
Stafford has a date with the Carolina Panthers' leaky pass defense in Week 13 with a chance to build on an impressive statistical season.
Drake Maye Remains Second in NFL MVP Odds
Drake Maye didn’t have his best performance in a narrow win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12, throwing for 294 yards, one score and one pick while completing 62.9 percent of his passes.
He’s up to 21 scores in the 2025 season, but Maye is now well behind Stafford in many passing numbers.
On the bright side, Maye is in first place in the AFC, which has likely helped keep his odds at +180 in this market. If the Patriots finish with the No. 1 seed in the conference, Maye should remain a finalist in this market.
Jonathan Taylor Falls in NFL MVP Race
The Kansas City Chiefs defense held Taylor to just 58 rushing yards on 16 carries, and he dropped from +650 to +1600 in the odds to win the MVP.
Winning this award as a running back is hard enough, but now the Colts are behind the Patriots and the Denver Broncos in the standings. That all but puts an end to Taylor’s MVP case, unless he has a massive finish to the season and Indy is able to take back the No. 1 seed.
Taylor is still having an awesome campaign, rushing for 1,197 yards and 15 touchdowns while also reeling in 32 passes as a receiver. He’s the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Josh Allen Drops Off in NFL MVP Odds
After the Buffalo Bills lost to the Houston Texans in Week 12 on Thursday night, SI Betting’s Brian Giuffra had this to say about Allen’s flailing MVP case:
Allen and the Bills have fallen to the No. 7 spot in the AFC, making it extremely tough for him to win his second straight MVP this season.
Patrick Mahomes Undervalued in MVP Odds?
It’s hard to give Mahomes too much love to win MVP with the Chiefs still out of the playoff picture in the AFC, but he led his team to a huge comeback win in Week 12 to remain in the hunt.
While the Chiefs’ record (6-5) likely would disqualify Mahomes from an MVP conversation, he’s still put up impressive numbers for a player down at +2500 to win the award. Mahomes has 2,977 passing yards, 18 scores and just seven picks this season while also rushing for 318 yards and an additional four scores.
Honorable Mentions: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+4000) is off to an insane start to the season, racking up 1,313 yards and seven scores for the Seahawks. He’s now ahead of teammate Sam Darnold (+4500) in the MVP odds. Also, Lamar Jackson (+10000) helped the Ravens to a fifth win in a row on Sunday, putting the team in first place in the AFC North. Lamar missed time and likely doesn’t have the numbers to secure the MVP, but what’s more valuable than having him back in the lineup?
