The summer is nearly here, meaning we’re getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn’t easy, however, especially in the case of players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point: In 2019, Michael Thomas went absolutely bananas for the Saints and fantasy fans with nearly 375 fantasy points on a record 149 catches for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns. As a result, he was the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy drafts and a surefire first-round pick. The aftermath, though, was not nearly as good.
Thomas went on to average 12 fantasy points a game, down more than 11 points from the previous year, and missed nine games due to injuries. It’s tough to predict a long-term ailment, of course, but Thomas wasn’t nearly as productive even when he played.
The point here is that few folks saw this coming because Thomas was so good in 2019. That leads me to this series, aptly named “The Fantasy Case Against…” where I’ll do my due diligence in looking at players who everyone in fantasy land seems to think is a sure bet to remain uber-productive after finding a high level of success in past seasons.
The series highlights big-name players or those coming off enormous statistical years who could see a surprising decline in fantasy success. Like I always say, the only thing that’s predictable about the NFL is that it’s oftentimes unpredictable. And as much as we love our fantasy heroes out on the gridiron, no one is ever guaranteed to succeed.
I started the 2022 “The Fantasy Case Against” series with Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams, so now let’s take a look at another superstar wide receiver, Deebo Samuel.
2021 Season
Samuel was one of the three best wide receivers in fantasy football, behind only Kupp and Adams. He recorded 77 catches on a team-high 121 targets with 1,405 yards and six touchdowns. Samuel also for an impressive 365 yards and eight touchdowns playing in a “wide back” role and finished with a personal-best 339 fantasy points. In all, around one quarter of his fantasy points came from carries out of the backfield.
Did You Know?
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Samuel had an overall average draft position (ADP) of 89.8 in 2021 fantasy football drafts. He was the 38th wide receiver selected on average, behind Corey Davis, Laviska Shenault, Robby Anderson and Michael Thomas (to name a few). None of those four wideouts finished higher than 49th at the position. Samuel’s teammate, Brandon Aiyuk, was selected at 53.9, 16 wideouts ahead of him. The Arizona State product would finish as the WR35, or 32 spots behind Samuel.
Historical Trends
Samuel’s 339 fantasy points ranks fifth all-time among 49ers wide receivers, behind only the great Jerry Rice (1995, 1994, 1993, 1986). He’s also the lone wideout in the franchise’s all-time top-10 (based on PPR scoring) not named Rice or Terrell Owens.
The fact that Samuel was used in a wide back role was a real boost for his value and level of production. As I mentioned earlier, around 25% of his total fantasy points came as a runner. Looking at it from an historical perspective, his 365 rushing yards ranks fourth among wide receivers in the Super Bowl era. Tavon Austin (434 yards in 2015), Ty Montgomery (390 yards in 2016) and Joshua Cribbs (381 yards in 2009) are the lone players listed as wide receivers by their respective teams who had more yards.
While he was fourth in single-season rushing yards among wideouts, Samuel’s eight rushing touchdowns are the most scored by a wide receiver in the Super Bowl era. Just one other wideout, Austin (2015), has as many as four rushing scores in a single year.
Coaching & Personnel Changes
Samuel will continue to be a featured component in the offensive attack of head coach Kyle Shanahan. The coach contends that his relationship with his veteran wide receiver has “always been alright” despite Samuel scrubbing his social media of all 49ers content earlier this offseason. Things seem to be better between the two sides, though, as Samuel did report to 49ers mandatory minicamp but didn't participate in team drills.
Assuming there are no setbacks in the summer months, Samuel shouldn’t be a holdout risk for fantasy managers. However, there could be some risk in his wide back role changing in the immediate future. NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport reports Samuel is unlikely to see as many carries “between the tackles” and that the team has made a few moves in the offseason that will limit using him to just “gadget plays” on the ground.
The team re-signed veteran Jeff Wilson Jr. and selected Tyrion Davis-Price in the NFL draft, which adds to a backfield depth chart that includes Elijah Mitchell, Trey Sermon and JaMycal Hasty. Shanahan used Samuel out of necessity last season, as the Niners saw a number of backs go down due to injuries, including starter Raheem Mostert. The re-signing of Wilson and drafting of Davis-Price will mean less of Samuel as a runner.
The 49ers will also have a new, mobile quarterback under center in Trey Lance. While we love his upside from a fantasy standpoint, the North Dakota State product has a lot to prove as a passer at the next level. He had just 71 attempts as a rookie, completing 57.7% of his passes while throwing five touchdown strikes with two interceptions.
Lance is a dual threat quarterback, too, which was evident in his 1,100 rushing yards in his last full college season. He’ll extend plays far more than Jimmy Garoppolo, which is good for his receivers. However, he’ll also tuck the ball away and run often.
Verdict
Samuel is a surefire top-20 overall selection after what was a breakout 2021 campaign, but I’d argue that fantasy point regression is inevitable. If Samuel does in fact see fewer carries and, more importantly, red-zone carries (14 in 2021), his numbers are destined to decline. Again, 25% of his total PPR fantasy points last season came as a back.
Without those backfield looks, Samuel still would have finished with 254.5 points as a pass catcher last season. That would have been good enough to rank 11th among wideouts, 3.3 points behind Keenan Allen and 7.9 points ahead of Mike Williams.
No one can doubt his playmaking skills and his abilities on the gridiron. Samuel is a tackle-breaking machine who should remain a productive part of Shanahan’s offense in 2022 and beyond. But I can easily see an 80-100 point drop in fantasy points this season. That’s still good enough to be a borderline No. 1 or 2 fantasy wideout in PPR formats, but that projected decline in his wide back role should concern fantasy fans.
More fantasy & NFL coverage:
The Fantasy Case Against Davante AdamsThe Fantasy Case Against Cooper KuppHow the Titans Will Fill Vacated Targets in 2022Deep Sleepers for 2022Six Turnaround Candidates to Make Playoffs
